Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 7.967103e-05 0.000095 0.000111 0.000130 0.000150 0.000172 0.000198
2025-02-09 5.778798e-05 0.000077 0.000100 0.000127 0.000160 0.000196 0.000240
2025-02-16 5.008628e-05 0.000072 0.000099 0.000133 0.000174 0.000221 0.000279
2025-02-23 4.136039e-05 0.000065 0.000094 0.000133 0.000182 0.000240 0.000313
2025-03-02 3.299306e-05 0.000056 0.000087 0.000128 0.000182 0.000248 0.000332
2025-03-09 2.666391e-05 0.000049 0.000081 0.000125 0.000184 0.000258 0.000354
2025-03-16 2.242540e-05 0.000045 0.000077 0.000125 0.000189 0.000270 0.000378
2025-03-23 1.926137e-05 0.000041 0.000075 0.000126 0.000196 0.000285 0.000405
2025-03-30 1.612313e-05 0.000038 0.000072 0.000124 0.000199 0.000296 0.000427
2025-04-06 1.300993e-05 0.000033 0.000067 0.000121 0.000199 0.000302 0.000444
2025-04-13 1.126929e-05 0.000031 0.000066 0.000122 0.000205 0.000316 0.000470
2025-04-20 8.674755e-06 0.000027 0.000061 0.000117 0.000202 0.000318 0.000480
2025-04-27 7.212433e-06 0.000025 0.000059 0.000118 0.000209 0.000334 0.000512
2025-05-04 5.661239e-06 0.000022 0.000056 0.000117 0.000213 0.000346 0.000537
2025-05-11 5.009554e-06 0.000022 0.000057 0.000121 0.000224 0.000369 0.000578
2025-05-18 4.112693e-06 0.000020 0.000056 0.000123 0.000231 0.000385 0.000610
2025-05-25 2.880618e-06 0.000017 0.000051 0.000118 0.000228 0.000388 0.000623
2025-06-01 2.071679e-06 0.000015 0.000048 0.000115 0.000228 0.000394 0.000642
2025-06-08 1.548459e-06 0.000013 0.000046 0.000114 0.000231 0.000406 0.000666
2025-06-15 1.205408e-06 0.000012 0.000045 0.000115 0.000237 0.000421 0.000697
2025-06-22 8.523109e-07 0.000011 0.000043 0.000114 0.000240 0.000430 0.000720
2025-06-29 5.337763e-07 0.000010 0.000040 0.000111 0.000239 0.000435 0.000736
2025-07-06 3.892658e-07 0.000009 0.000040 0.000112 0.000245 0.000450 0.000767